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- Data Updates
- Advance notice of changes to Key Stage 4 Attainment Track data for the 2025 and 2026 Exam Years
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic impacting pupils at the end of Key Stage 2 in 2020 and 2021, prior attainment variables for their respective GCSE cohorts are not available. We are actively exploring the integration of alternative contextual variables
The pandemic significantly disrupted end-of-Key Stage 2 assessments in 2020 and 2021, including cancellations of exams and alternative teacher assessments, which resulted in no standardised national data having been collected for these cohorts. Consequently, prior attainment data, which is typically made available alongside pupil- and school-level GCSE attainment data for context, is not available for these cohorts.
What does this mean for the Key Stage 4 Attainment Track?
The following metrics and underlying pupil counts will not be available for the cohorts who sat GCSEs in summer 2025 and 2026:
- Average Progress 8 scores
- Breakdown by prior attainment at Key Stage 2 for all metrics
It is important to take these upcoming, temporary, changes into consideration when planning for evaluation of attainment outcomes for the impacted GCSE cohorts.
What alternative contextual data is there?
Prior attainment is one of the most important factors when it comes to predicting future attainment, and it is therefore an important variable to control for when evaluating attainment-raising interventions. We are currently exploring other control variables we may be able to integrate into your Key Stage 4 Attainment Track dataset and dashboard, to provide as an alternative while prior attainment is unavailable. For example, we are exploring the integration of a breakdown by Sex (based on the National Pupil Database’s Sex variable).
We are also exploring the integration of alternative comparator options, such as a comparator group based on pupils in your tracked cohort who only engaged in minimal outreach.
If you have any questions concerning the content of this update, please contact HEAT Support.
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